Modeling and predicting the concentration of volatile organic chlorination by-products in Krakow drinking water

摘要

The goal of this article is to develop the models predicting the occurrence of volatile organic chlorination by-products in two Krakow (Poland) water distribution systems. The research results were used to develop the models predicting the concentration of five groups of chlorination by-products (trihalomethanes, haloacetonitriles, haloketones, chloral hydrate and chloropicrin), on the basis of several parameters of water quality, chlorination and distribution (organic carbon and nitrogen, bromide ions, UV_(254), temperature, pH, retention time). The multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop the base models, in which all analyzed parameters were included. The backward stepwise regression method was used to optimize these models. The Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the ability of the models to predict the by-products concentration in the analyzed water distribution systems. The sensitivity analysis was also performed to identify the influence of individual parameters on the formation of each by-products group.