Precision Analysis of an Analytical Method in Space Debris Orbit Prediction

摘要

Using high precision laser ephemeris as reference, the precision of orbit prediction is analyzed of an analytical model which is formulated by quasi-analytical average method. The result shows that: the orbit prediction accuracy of MEO and LEO satellites is several hundred meters in 1 day and not more than 10km in 7 days. The position error changes quickly over time. The calculation speed is fast using the analytical model. It can be used for precise orbit determination for a short term about 1 or 2 days. And it also can be used for the general accuracy of the long-term orbit prediction. But if the prediction time is too long, the accuracy will drop sharply.