South African aggregate electricity demand forecast to 2030

摘要

Electricity demand in South Africa continues to stagnate. Aggregate electricity demand analysis is an initial step with electricity planning. Empirical methods are used to estimate the South African electricity demand function. Income is the dominant factor for demand; price elasticity was also found to be significant. The long run income and price elasticities were estimated at respectively 0.631 and -0.085. The applied approach realised a forecast of aggregate electricity demand for South Africa of between 239 and 336 TWh in 2030. The study indicates that national planning may be overestimating the required electricity infrastructure to be built in the short- and medium term. Besides already committed units, it is unlikely that there is a need to commission new conventional base-load (coal and nuclear) power plants before the mid-2020's. It is important for government to base plans on realistic demand projections.