Cost Estimation of Fire Protection Requirements During Bidding Phase Through Simplified Risk Assessment Methods For Oil Gas Facilities

摘要

Projects with accelerated engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) schedules are becoming common in the oil and gas industry with Oil Majors keen on quick and guaranteed returns on investment. EPC contractors involved in the bidding process face the task of submitting ‘qualification free’ techno-commercial proposals within a short time frame which provides challenges to the tenderer for a package having a level of design not mature enough for the estimation purpose. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical approach to the cost estimation of fire protection systems during bidding stage using Simplified Risk Assessment (SRA) methodologies. The methodology adopted was to conduct a risk assessment for a typical bid to arrive at the sound cost estimate for the fire protection systems. Typically fire protection requirements come in form of recommendations from safety/risk studies, hence cost attached to fire protection requirements were estimated based on the results from SRA for a typical bid. The Fire Risk Assessment (FRA) was performed using DNV-GL PHAST software to carry out consequence analysis to identify the extent of fire impacts. Subsequently, frequency analysis was conducted using parts count methodology to cumulate the frequency of fire scenarios. The most prominent leak scenarios for the study were considered as a part of the simplified approach in lieu of considering exhaustive scenario combinations based on different leak sizes, weather parameters, leak directions, etc., which traditionally forms part of detailed QRA. The selection of prominent leak scenarios was based on the good practice followed in the industry supported by the requirements specified within Operator Standards as well. The Fire Risk Assessment (FRA) results for different time intervals formed the basis for fire protection requirements. The study has helped to identify fire protection requirements for specific system/equipment/structure and further has helped in the submission of ‘qualification free’ techno-commercial proposals. The advantages of adopting this methodology based on SRA approach are deemed to be well-suited for bidding phase, where the time and cost of carrying out detailed risk analysis is not feasible. Application of such methodology would also provide benefits to the operators in receiving quick and reliable fire protection cost estimate.