A study on Analysis of Macroeconomic Loss Risk of Earthquakes: Take Chengdu City as an Example

摘要

Each district/county under the jurisdiction of a city was regarded as a site. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the seismic sequences. For each earthquake in the seismic sequence, the ground motion parameters of each site were calculated through the attenuation relationship and brought into the macroeconomic vulnerability model with GDP loss ratio as an indicator to assess the economic losses. Sum the loss values of all sites and use the maximum value as a seismic sequence simulation result. Through large-scale sampling simulation, the macroeconomic loss exceedance probability curve was given to measure the degree of urban earthquake disaster risk. The Monte Carlo method combined with the macroeconomic vulnerability model can quickly estimate the probabilistic risk of the seismic economic loss faced by a city and provide a scientific basis for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction measures.