Complex Network Analysis on Fire Risk Evolution of Hazardous Chemical Tanks

摘要

In order to control fire chain risk of hazardous chemical tanks, a method of risk analysis and control on fire evolution of hazardous chemicals is proposed based on the complex networks theory. Firstly, fire risk factors of hazardous chemical tanks were analyzed and screen initial risk events, transitive risk events and terminate risk events. A network model of risk evolution was made based on the logical relationship of risk events. Then the out-in degrees and the clustering coefficients were discussed for risk analysis and the key events of risk evolution were presented. Finally, considering the probability of events occurrence and transformation, the model was converted into a directed network with weight of events. And the shortest paths of risk evolution were calculated by using the Dijkstra algorithm. The risk control measures on disconnecting chains were presented. The results showed that the clustering coefficient of the model was 0.0424, the network aggregation degree was relatively low. The weights of all the shortest paths were no more than 15. The research can provide the theoretical foundation for the inhibition of risk transfer and control of accident evolution, which has practical significance for guarding the continuous safety operation.