The Systematic Endogenous Mechanism of Financial Crisis Based on Big Data Analysis and its Quantitative Analysis

摘要

By reflecting on the evolution logic of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, this paper finds that the subprime mortgage crisis directly triggered by the decline of house prices and the rise of benchmark interest rates in the United States has evolved into a global systemic financial crisis mainly due to the securitization of subprime mortgages and the innovation of various structural financial derivatives, which has led to the evolution of the credit crisis into an asset price crisis, the market-marking pricing rules and dynamic credit rating. The "excessive pro-cyclicality" inherent in the financial system, such as risk management within banking institutions, worsens the capital market crisis. The sharp decline of global asset value, through the role of wealth effect, Tobin Q effect and financial accelerator mechanism, makes the crisis transmitted from financial market to real economy, and through international trade channels and investment channels from consumer countries to productive countries and finally to resource-based countries.