Application of Seasonal Decomposition on Short-term Forecast of Cigarette sales in Xifeng

摘要

In order to understand future trend of cigarette sales in Xifeng county from the grasp of the macro level, this report completed a short-term prediction for monthly cigarette sales of Xifeng county at year 2011, which based on seasonal decomposition method. To compare with the actual sales, the result shows higher value of application. Also, seasonal decomposition method has obvious maneuverability. For short-term prediction outcome will be much more effective and accurate by applying the method.