The future wave climate of Ireland: from averages to extremes

摘要

In this study we examine a likely future wave climate projection for Ireland using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario for the years 2031-2060. Global EC-Earth 10m winds are used to drive a basin scale wave model (North Atlantic) with two higher resolution nested grids zooming in on Ireland. The changes in the future wave climate are assessed by comparison to a 30-year high-resolution hindcast that targets the present wave climate. An overall decrease in the significant wave heights was found around Ireland, with a maximum decrease in the winter mean reaching over 20cm. An increased storminess in winter and spring was found in the north and northwest.