Warranty Forecasting and Prediction Based on Reliability Models

摘要

Warranty forecasting and prediction is a challenging task for any manufacturer who tries to maximize profit through their most advanced technologies and best services. Warranty cost is directly related to the reliability performance of a product, and the reliability model is a critical component of warranty modeling and warranty policy making. In this paper, the approaches of warranty forecasting based on warranty data and warranty prediction based on product fatigue data are reviewed and discussed. The emphasis of this paper is placed on the selection of appropriate reliability models and probabilistic distribution functions, the Weibull distribution family in particular, for warranty analysis. Two case studies are provided to demonstrate the importance of the reliability model selection in warranty forecasting and prediction.