Shared social-economic pathways (SSPs) modeling: application of global multi-region energy system model

摘要

Shared social-economic pathways (SSPs), as a new scenario framework, were recently established to provide integrated assessment of climate change issues. The GTIMES, a fourteen-region global TIMES model, developed on the basis of the China TIMES model, considers 26 end-use subsectors and rich energy supply and demand technologies for every region. The driving forces for future energy development and carbon emissions trend include population and GDP growth, technology development and etc. assumed for the five SSPs, namely, Sustainability (SSP1), Middle-of-the-Road (SSP2), Regional Rivalry (SSP3), Inequality (SSP4) and Fossil-fuelled Development (SSP5) are taken as the basis to project future energy service demand for the 26 end-use subsectors and to provide technology development descriptions in the GTIMES model. The model is used to study mid-to-long term energy development and carbon emission pathways for different regions in SSPs. Modelling results of energy consumption and carbon emissions, as well as key indicators such as per capita energy consumption, per capita carbon emissions, carbon intensity and etc. for different regions under different SSPs are compared.