Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Performance of Solar Invictus 53S - A Parabolic Dish Solar Collector for Direct Steam Generation

摘要

This paper presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for performance of Solar Invictus 53S; a solar steam generation solution consisting of a parabolic solar dish and cavity type receiver which works as Once Through direct Solar Steam Generator (OTSSG). Probabilistic model is used for solar to steam conversion process of Solar Invictus 53S to predict its performance and efficiency. System conversion performance model is discussed in this work and input parameters have been assigned with relevant probability distribution learned from available data and experience. The simulation of the model gives the probability distribution for net solar to steam efficiency with variations in the input parameters. Sensitivity analysis shows that performance of the system is most sensitive to Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) and cavity temperature of the OTSSG. Whereas wind has almost negligible effect on the performance of the collector.