Solar Resource Assessment over Kuwait: Validation of Satellite-derived Data and Reanalysis Modeling

摘要

The Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR) has been mandated to develop a first industrial complex of wind, PV and CSP systems at Shagaya, Kuwait. To that end, KISR is also engaged in a full-fledged resource assessment program, based on both ground-based observations and extensive modeling. In this study, ground observations of solar radiation at 5 sites are compared to modeled predictions from various sources. These include a 19-year time series of GHI and DNI obtained from GeoModel’s SolarGIS satellite model, a 35-year GHI time series from NASA’s MERRA reanalysis model, and a 23-year monthly climatology of GHI and DNI from NASA’s SSE database. The long-term monthly mean GHI values obtained from MERRA and site-adapted SolarGIS show reasonable agreement. In contrast, the various predictions of GHI from the raw SolarGIS and the SSE GHI data, as well as most predictions of DNI, exhibit significant differences, likely because of diverging estimates of aerosol effects. The SolarGIS time series is significantly improved by its site adaptation. When derived from either MERRA or SolarGIS, both the GHI inter-annual variability and its long-term trend disagree substantially, which requires additional scrutiny.