Using of aggregate indexes in the process of oil export modeling on an example of the Republic of Tatarstan before the 2009 crisis

摘要

The degree of relevance of this research is defined by the need of expansion and strengthening of the foreign economic regional relations as an instrument of growth of the economic status of the modern region (Republic of Tatarstan) through the interregional and foreign trade linkages. In respect of the foreign trade of the region there is a set of approaches for the decision of these tasks. Thus basic data which could be used for the analysis of current cooperation linkages on a separate period of time for the purpose of seeking the ways of increasing their efficiency due to its content are limited mainly by the volumes of the purchases/sales which could be expressed in any of the trade, logistic or cost units. The index method chosen for the modeling of foreign economic relations allows us to define the general index of efficiency of trade i.e. the index number with the changed and constant (fixed) weights, an index of structural changes, to calculate the absolute variation of the 2009 to 2007 result and to show which part of this increment (decrease) is received from the changes of the size of basic cost, from the productivity of trade with the certain countries or from the changes of structure of basic cost during the processes of trade. So, application of the aggregated indexes even on the limited massive of basic data allows carrying out the factorial analysis of the most essential parts of the analyzed phenomenon. Therefore, the index analysis due to principal limitations of statistical data in the modern Russia conditions concerned with the famous social and economic reasons could be very productive instrument in the analysis of the chosen objects of research.