Evolution-Peak based Evolutionary Control and Analysis on Carbon Emission System of the United States

摘要

Based on the status quo of carbon emissions in USA and the international crude oil price fluctuations, this paper introduces control index and critical time of carbon emissions to find a new dynamic evolutionary model of carbon emissions of the States, deducing relative theories, such as Change Trends Theorem and Evolutionary Theorem. The critical time in the economic period is determined based on the evolutionary situation of the international crude oil price peaks, and it can be divided into four time intervals. Least-square method is used to analyze the dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions in the four time intervals with data provided by the international energy agency (IEA). Based on the nonlinear dynamic evolutionary model, the paper predicts carbon emissions by means of control index and control function, which facilitates carbon policy regulation and the system's external influence, and creates unique dynamic evolutionary factors of carbon emissions corresponding with the real situation of the United States. The financial crisis and shale gas large-scale mining have significantly changed America's energy supply structure. With the economy running upward, carbon emissions have a tendency to increase again. To achieve the goal of its reduction, different policies should be adopted by the US government. In this essay, the influence of the control index and the effect of critical time of carbon emissions to control function are analyzed. In addition, the dynamic evolutionary model is introduced and evolutionary scenario analysis is also conducted by modulating evolutionary coefficient and critical time.