Forecasting on Electricity Consumption of Tourism Industry in Changli County

摘要

In recent years, tourism become more popular, and analyzing electricity consumption in tourism industry contributes to its development. To predict energy consumption, this paper applies a new model, NEWARMA model, which means to add the variable's own medium- and long-term cyclical fluctuations item to the basic ARMA model, and the prediction accuracy will be significantly improved. This paper also compares fitting result of NEWARMA to neural network models and grey models, and finds that it performs better. Finally, through simulation analysis, this study finds that when electricity in one industry declines, other industries may be affected and changed too, which help our country to control total energy consumption in the society.