A New Evaluation Index System of Water Scarcity Degree and Prediction Model Based on Grey Theory

摘要

To measure the ability of a region to provide clean water, water demand and supply index (WDSI) is defined as the ratio of water demand and water supply. Obviously, if the index >1, the region is suffering from water scarcity. Water demand includes industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water. Water supply consists of surface water, groundwater and other clean water. To evaluate this model, the paper selects six countries in the UN water scarcity map and calculate their WSDI from 1988 to 2002. Then cluster analysis is used to divide the countries. The test result fits water stress indicator interval showed by the UN water scarcity map perfectly.