The Methods of Prediction of Demand on The Labor Market

摘要

This article examines one aspect of forecasting the regional labor market-a professional. Urgency of the problem caused by the fact that the labor market formed the specific needs of the regions, territories, industries and businesses. The necessity of the phase analysis of regional labor market: its evaluation on different levels, structure, condition of employment. Identifies indicators that make up the methodological basis of the forecast skill mix of the labor market.Russian Federation practically lacks experience of prediction of the human resources demand on the labor market regarding qualification and vocation of job-applicants. Therefore the experience of foreign countries in prediction of current-employed personnel;; especially the experience in the United States, where much attention is paid to such kind of prediction for many years;; should be taken into consideration. Generally, it's emphasizing the role of a branch employment that is defined as a major factor of employees' distribution by vocation and specialization, allows building the prediction of employment rates in united system of macroeconomic prediction as its final stage. The prediction of employment rates by branches of industry, grounding on calculations of industry growth, labor productivity and investments rates and this prediction, obviously, plays role of a basement so as to define prospective ratios of distribution of currently-employed by vocation and specialization. Factor analysis within the limits of branches current-employment prediction may be used to predict employment structure in term s of profession and specialization in Russia.