Model Predictions of Effects of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Species Diversity with or without Management Intervention, Repeated Thinning, for a Site in Central European Russia

摘要

The EFIMOD-ROMUL soil-vegetation dynamic model of carbon and nitrogen cycles in forest ecosystems and a static ground vegetation model BioCalc were used for simulating the dynamics of forest ecosystem parameters and prognosis of plant species biodiversity under two management and two climate change scenarios. A large forested area occupying approximately 1,800 km~2 on the Central Russian Plain (in Kostroma administrative region) was taken as a case study. Natural forest development (forest reservation) and clear cutting regime were taken as the management scenarios. The most dramatic climate change based on HadCM3 model and A1Fi emission scenario and 'stationary climate' were taken as the climatic scenarios. The simulation results showed that clear cutting impacts on forest biodiversity are very strong in the study area and climate warming has minimal effect on biodiversity under the clear cutting regime but climate changes lead to a slight decrease in species diversity under the forest natural development.