Prediction of total energy consumption in China by the fuzzy grey Markov chain based on quadratic fitting

摘要

Energy consumption makes a great contribution to the economic condition of a country. Meanwhile, total energy consumption reflects on the economic condition of a country. Therefore, it is pivotal to make a prediction on the total energy consumption of China. Due to features of the data, we provided a model, called fuzzy grey Markov chain model based on quadratic fitting, to predict the total energy consumption of China. The model avoided the shortcomings of the traditional grey Markov predicting model like weak anti-jamming ability and the existence of a grey bias. It proves that the forecasting precision of a fuzzy grey Markov chain model based on quadratic fitting is higher than other models according to the comparison. That means the trend and fluctuation of the data could be better predicted, leading to a result with more instructive significance.