Probability Analysis of Power System Cascading Failure Based on a Braching Process Model with Transmission Line Outage Data

摘要

Cascading failure has become the significant factor of the safe and reliable operation of grid with the development of power system. To assess the operation risk of cascading failure, we apply traditonal and improved branching process model to a a 14-year historical outage data from a regional power grid in China, computing probabilities of cascading line outages. Then the probability distribution obtained from the 2 moedls are compared by fitness test. As the simulation result shows, for the historical data, the empirical distribution of the total number of line outages is well approximated by the improved branching process model with propagation parameters and initial outages. The fitness test provide quantitative evidence that the improved model fits the data better than the conventional model.