Study on Short-term Wind Power Prediction Model Based on ARMA Theory

摘要

At present, the difficulty of wind power integration has resulted in a large number of wind curtailment phenomena and wasted a lot of renewable energy. Due to the significant instability, anti-peak-regulation and intermittency of wind power, wind power integration needs an accurate prediction technique to be a basis. ARMA model has the advantage of high prediction accuracy in predicting short-term wind power. This paper puts forward the method for short-term wind power prediction using ARMA model and carries out empirical analysis using the data from a wind farm of Jilin province, which shows the science and operability of the proposed model. It provides a new research method for the wind power prediction.