Forecast of Advanced Technology for Coal Power Generation towards the year of 2050 in CO2 reduction model of Japan

摘要

In the fossil fuel, coal is enough to get easily because it has supply and price stability brought about its ubiquitously. Coal is used for power generation as the major fuel in the world. However it is true that control of global warming should be applied to coal power generations. Therefore, many people expect CO2 reduction by technical innovation such as efficiency improvement, Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS). In case of coal power plant are considered for improving efficiency. Some of them have already put into commercial operation but others are still under R&D stage. Especially, the technical development prospect of the power plant is very important for planning the energy strategy in the resource-importing country. Japan Coal Energy Center (JCOAL) constructed a program to forecast the share of advanced coal fired plants/natural gas power plants towards the year of 2050. Then, we simulated the future prediction about 2 cases (the Japanese scenario and the world scenario). The fuel price and the existence of CCS were considered in the forecast of the technical development of the thermal power generation. Especially in the Japanese scenario, we considered the CO2 reduction target which is 80% reduction in 1990. In the world scenario, coal price had almost no influence on the share of coal fired plant. However, when the gas price increased 1.5% or more, the share of coal fired plant increased. In that case, CO2 emissions increased because coal-fired plant increased. Compared with both cases, the amount of CO2 in 2050 without CCS case was 50% higher than that of with CCS case. In Japanese scenario, achievement of 80% CO2 reduction target is impossible without CCS. If CCS is introduced into all the new establishment coal fired plant, CO2 reduction target can be attained. In the Japanese scenario, the gas price more expensive than a coal price so that the amount of the coal fired plant does not decline. Since the reduction of the amount of CO2 will be needed in all over the world, introductory promotion and technical development of CCS are very important not only Japan but also all over the world.