Probability Forecast Method of Regional Highway Geological Disaster Based on Effective Rainfall

摘要

In this paper the Sichuan province and Chongqing city of China are selected to investigate the critical factors for high way geological disaster (HGD).Hourly rainfall data in 2010-2012, from rain gauge stations closest to HGD places, are used to analyse the correlation between daily rainfall and HGD.Specifically, we attempted to relate HGD to daily rainfall data observed 20 days prior to the occurrence of HGD.Based on principal component analysis and cluster analysis, it was found that the relationship between 20 days daily rainfall factors have little correlation, it is hard to classify them.Except the daily rainfall of the disaster occurred has the bigger average value, other 19dailyrainfallshavetheloweraverage value.Therefore, by using effective rainfall of 20-day antecedent precipitationas hazard factor of HGD, and then matching the probability (frequency) of occurrence, and establishing the probability forecast equation of highway geological disaster.Finally, itutilisestrue disaster data in 2009to examine and prove that probability forecast equation has a positive ability of highway geological disaster probability forecast.