Technology of Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Assessment and Curtail Quantity Estimation with Power Capacity Limited

摘要

Eastern Inner Mongolia is by now one of the areas with the most rapid development of wind power in China. There exists mismatching between wind power supply ability and level of local economy. Thus, wind farms will be inevitability partly involved in peak shaving. The researches on accuracy assessment on wind power forecasting and estimation of power rationing quantity on condition of wind power curtail contribute to provide effective data evidence for scheduling and dispatching operations. In this paper, a new method for accuracy assessment on wind power forecasting and estimation of power rationing quantity through calculating theoretical power were presented first. Then, the algorithm of theoretical power calculation was presented. Case study proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the method. The conclusion indicated that the method has feasible and objective mean for accuracy assessment on wind power forecasting on condition of wind power curtail, which can provide objective and accurate theoretical and data support for dispatching and scheduling operations on condition of wind power curtail.