Numerical Analysis of the Influence of Sea Level Rise on Flood and Tidal Stage in the Yangtze River Estuary

摘要

A two-dimensional numerical model was set up to simulate the tidal current of the Yangtze River Estuary with MIKE21 FM. This model has been calibrated and validated with the observed tidal level. We simulated the change of flood and tidal stage in the Yangtze River Estuary after the sea level rising by 20~60cm. The simulate results indicate that: (1)With sea level rising, the extent of rise of the high tide is greater than that of rise of low tide. Under the same sea level rise, the closer to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Estuary, the more obvious the increase in the low tide level is, the rise of the high tide does not change significantly. (2)For the changes of the tidal range increase, under the same sea level rise, the closer to the upper reaches of the Yangtze Estuary, the greater the tidal range increase is.