A probabilistic Risk Forecast of Accidental Oil Spills from Vessels in Luoyuan Bay, Fujian Province, PRC

摘要

Marine environment and resources have always been and continue to be an important support for human existence and development. However, the increasing interferences by various types of human activities have made marine and coastal ecosystem under heavier pressure. With the rapid development of shipping industry, especially ship transportation of petroleum, accidental oil spills have been one example of the human pressure and constituted one of the biggest threats to marine ecosystem. Marine oil spill accidents have also brought huge economic losses to local fishery, aquaculture, tourism and etc. Therefore, it is important to forecast and cut the risk of marine accidental oil spills. This paper focuses on the probability for potential future oil spill accidents in Luoyuan Bay. Based on the predicted number of vessels in Luoyuan Bay in the future, we estimate the foundational probability of shipping accident and then forecast the probabilistic risk of oil spill accidents using methodologies of probability and mathematical statistics. By calculating the probability of oil spills from oil tankers of different tonnages, we also predict the spilled oil quantity at one time and its diffusion area. The results indicate that the foundational probability is 0.361×l0~4/S in the next S years, and the probability of oil spills from vessels is 0.0925, implying that the oil-spill accidents may occur almost once every 10 years. The possible spilled oil quantity at one time is 57.3 tons and the oil diffusion area may reach 0.64km2 after one tidal cycle. Finally, we put forward some relevant measures for the risk prevention of oil spill accidents in Luoyuan Bay.