Analysis of the ethanol production chain in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: A study based on system's dynamics with a view for exploring scenarios

摘要

Brazil plays a leading role in biofuels production, specially Ethanol from sugarcane. With a consolidated production chain, based on large-scale structured farms dedicated to sugarcane monoculture in large tracts of land, and with decades of technological development, the country was responsible for 35% of world production of fuel ethanol. The southernmost state in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, participates of this chain producing less than 1% of its local demand, presenting an undeveloped Ethanol production chain based on family farming, even having agricultural zoning that ensures the production of sugarcane and other crops and structured programs of the state government for fostering biofuels production. Through a systems' dynamics approach, highlighting social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and legal dimensions, this study aims at identifying how the actors, and endogenous and exogenous variables, exert influence on this complex system. The research developed was based on a compilation of technical and academic references, and of interviews with experts on the subject. The set of information has given rise to a map of systems' dynamics, presenting the main actors of this peculiar chain, their relationships, and the key variables that influence the system. The map served as basis for future scenario's analysis looking for the key elements for economic sustainability and competitiveness of such chain. The authors hope to contribute to the literature on the subject, presenting relevant for the understanding of the need for a differentiated model for developing a sustainable and intelligent productive chain, when in the presence of small producers based on family farming.