Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint in Jilin Province of China Based on Grey Prediction Model

摘要

The paper calculates ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in the Jilin province during 1998 and 2010 by using the ecological footprint theory, and analyzes the dynamic changes of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita, and obtains development prediction model of ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita based on grey prediction model. The results indicate the ecological footprint per capita had increased continuously from 1.7841 hm~2 per capita to 3.2013 hm~2 per capita between 1998 and 2010. During this period, ecological capacity per capita dropped from 1.3535 hm~2 per capita to 1.3028 hm~2 per capita. Ecological deficit had increased from 0.4306 hm~2 per capita to 1.8985 hm~2 per capita that showed that the development of Jilin province was in an unsustainable status. The gray prediction model shows the ecological footprint per capita in the Jilin province will increase from 3.4833 hm~2 per capita to 5.7022 hm~2 per capita between 2011 and 2020, ecological capacity per capita will drop from 1.2978 hm~2 per capita to 1.2676 hm~2 per capita and ecological deficit will increase from 2.1855 hm~2 per capita to 4.4346 hm~2 per capita.