COMPARISON OF MODELS OF NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT IN OPEN COASTAL AREAS

摘要

The beginning of a systematic approach to the navigational safety assessment dates back to 70's of the XX century. Among the first authors dealing with this problem were MacDuff (MacDuff, 1974) and Fujii (Fujii et al., 1974). MacDuff carried out research to determinate the probability of collision and grounding in the Strait of Dover, Fujii dealt with the safety of Japanese waters. Both of them used a similar approach, defining the probability of an accident (collision or grounding) as the product of the geometric probability and the causation probability (probability that no maneuver will be performed or undertaken maneuver will be incorrect or insufficient).