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A Parametric Method for Reliability Management in Multi-state System under Uncertainty

机译:不确定性下多状态系统可靠性管理的参数化方法

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Reliability targets have to be realistic and systematically defined, in a meaningful way for marketing, engineering, testing, and production. Potential problems proactively identified and solved during design phase and products launched at or near planned reliability targets eliminate extensive and prolonged improvement efforts after start on. Once in the market, products standard procedures require monitoring of early signs of issues, allowing corrective action to be quickly taken. Reliability validation before a product goes to market by the means of Bayesian statistical method because the model has shorter confidence intervals than the classical statistical inference models, allowing a more accurate decision-making process. The paper proposes the estimation of the shape parameters in a complex data structures approached with exponential gamma distribution as model of life time, reliability and failure rate functions. The numerical simulation performed in the case study validates the correctness of the proposed methodology.
机译:可靠性目标必须以有意义的营销,工程,测试和生产方式逼真和系统地定义。在设计阶段和在计划的可靠性目标上或附近的设计阶段和产品期间积极识别和解决的潜在问题消除了开始后的广泛和长时间的改善努力。一旦在市场上,产品标准程序需要监测问题的早期迹象,允许迅速采取纠正措施。通过贝叶斯统计方法的手段,产品前往市场之前的可靠性验证,因为该模型的置信间隔比经典统计推断模型更短,允许更准确的决策过程。本文提出估计以指数伽马分布的复杂数据结构中的形状参数估计为寿命模型,可靠性和故障率函数。在案例研究中执行的数值模拟验证了所提出的方法的正确性。

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