DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MANAGEMENT OF FISHERIES: CONTRADICTORY ADVICE AND A NEW APPROACH

摘要

Fisheries management is complicated in nearly all fisheries by various types of uncertainty. Numerous economics and fisheries science publications prescribe adjustments to harvest strategies in the face of uncertainty. The conclusions and recommendations from this body of work are conflicting in many cases, are often dependent on critical but unrealistic assumptions, and are often impractical. In this paper, we review and compare the conclusions of economists and fisheries scientists on managing fisheries under uncertainty. We identify the common findings and discuss the divergent ones. We also attempt to explain why the theoretical conclusions of this literature have rarely been heeded by fisheries managers. Finally, we discuss a simulation based approach known as management strategy evaluation (MSE) that is designed to identify harvest strategies that are both robust to various types of uncertainty and capable of balancing multiple economic, social and biological objectives.