The use of GIS for presenting the Group Risk for Land Use Planning

摘要

In the Netherlands, regulations for land-use planning in the vicinity of major industrial hazards or transport routes of hazardous materials are explicitly risk-based, in which the risks are visualized in two ways: Individual Risk (IR) and Group Risk (GR). IR is visualized on a geographical map presenting iso-risk contours. This is an understandable way of communicating risk with (non-)experts. However, such a straightforward approach is not appropriate for presenting the GR, through which the communication between the (non-)experts and decision makers becomes rather hard. GR is usually represented as a graph in which the cumulative probability of more than n fatalities is given as a function of N, the number of people killed. This graph is called the fN curve, almost a non- communicable risk presentation for land use planners and decision makers. Land use planners are used to communicate in maps and drawings, while the risk analysts communicate the GR in fN-curves. Moreover, the risk acceptance criterion for the GR is difficult to apply as well. In this regard, a methodology to present the GR in a Geographical Information System (GIS) is proposed in this paper, through which the visualization and motivation of the GR becomes communicable for both land use planners and decision makers.