Detailed Fire Modeling Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation code Crystal Ball? for detailed fire modeling, using a typical fire compartment as an example. The methodology is used to derive fire damage state probabilities, CDF and LERF for this compartment and to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the results to uncertainties in the input parameters in accordance with Task 15 of NUREG/CR-6850. The scope of this paper is to: ? describe how the Monte Carlo simulation technique can be used for detailed fire modeling, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis ? review and characterize the uncertainties associated with detailed fire modeling ? demonstrate the application of the technique using a specific example and compare the results with point estimates ? present the results of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for this specific case