EPRI/NRC Fire HRA Guidelines: Introduction to Fire HRA Scoping Quantification

摘要

The fire human reliability analysis (HRA) guidelines [1] developed jointly by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are intended as explicit guidance for identifying, modeling and quantifying human failure events under fire-generated conditions. A three tiered approach to quantification is offered including a screening level similar to that presented in NUREG/CR-6850 [2], a new scoping fire HRA quantification approach, and two detailed HRA quantification approaches. This paper introduces the new scoping fire HRA quantification method. This new scoping approach offers a mid-level quantification option that is less resource intensive than a full, detailed analysis and offers less conservative human error probabilities (HEPs) compared to the screening approach. The scoping fire HRA quantification approach is based on the use of flowcharts directing the analyst to the correct HEPs based on assessment of key performance shaping factors. The process includes a demonstration of feasibility and an assessment of the available time margin for completing the action(s) in question. This paper is one of four PSAM 10 papers providing an overview and insights into the recently published draft EPRI/NRC.Fire HRA guidelines.