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Bayesian Networks as a tool for Epidemiological Systems Analysis

机译:贝叶斯网络作为流行病学系统分析的工具

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Bayesian network analysis is a form of probabilistic modeling which derives from empirical data a directed acyclic graph (DAG) describing the dependency structure between random variables. Bayesian networks are increasingly finding application in areas such as computational and systems biology, and more recently in epidemiological analyses. The key distinction between standard empirical modeling approaches, such as generalised linear modeling, and Bayesian network analyses is that the latter attempts not only to identify statistically associated variables, but to additionally, and empirically, separate these into those directly and indirectly dependent with one or more outcome variables. Such discrimination is vastly more ambitious but has the potential to reveal far more about key features of complex disease systems. Applying Bayesian network modeling to biological and medical data has considerable computational demands, combined with the need to ensure robust model selection given the vast model space of possible DAGs. These challenges require the use of approximation techniques, such as the Laplace approximation, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and parametric bootstrapping, along with computational parallelization. A case study in structure discovery - identification of an optimal DAG for given data - is presented which uses additive Bayesian networks to explore veterinary disease data of industrial and medical relevance.
机译:贝叶斯网络分析是一种概率模型的形式,它来自经验数据,一个定向的非循环图(DAG)描述了随机变量之间的依赖性结构。贝叶斯网络越来越越来越多地在计算和系统生物学等领域找到应用,并且最近在流行病学分析中更高。标准实证建模方法之间的关键区别,如广义线性建模和贝叶斯网络分析的关键区别在于后者不仅会识别统计相关的变量,而且还尝试另外和经验,将这些与一个或多个依赖于那些更多结果变量。这种歧视非常雄心勃勃,但有可能揭示关于复杂疾病系统的关键特征的潜力。将贝叶斯网络建模应用于生物和医疗数据具有相当大的计算需求,结合需要确保较大的模型选择,因为考虑到可能的可能性的巨大模型空间。这些挑战需要使用近似技术,例如拉普拉斯近似,马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和参数自动引导以及计算并行化。介绍了结构发现的案例研究 - 鉴定了给定数据的最佳DAG - 展示了添加剂贝叶斯网络探讨了工业和医学相关性的兽医疾病数据。

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