Scenario Analysis of Low-Carbon Smart Electricity Systems in Japan in 2030

摘要

The future developments of nuclear and renewable energy need to be considered together in Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident under continuing policies of CO2 emission reduction. On the other hand, one of the most crucial elements of future electricity systems will be the capability for "smart" controls on both supply and demand sides to perform under real-time dynamics. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to propose electricity systems in Japan in 2030 with different mix of renewable energy and nuclear power in supply side and different penetration levels of electric devices such as battery, EV (electric vehicle) and HP (heat pump) under their smart control strategies in demand side. The scenario analysis was conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model to derive supply-demand balance subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained excess electricity, CO2 emissions, operation patterns of various devices, etc. in different scenarios were compared and analyzed. The results of the analyses make us understand quantitatively the technological and environmental impacts of the different mixes of renewable and nuclear energy, as well as the corresponding operation patterns of controllable devices under their smart control strategies in different scenarios.