Risk Nonlinear Dynamic Model based on Predictive Control of Engineering Project Management System

摘要

Many projects have the characteristic of large-scale, wide-rang, and at very important role in national economy. Nowadays engineering project management is still suffering from many problems due to various uncertainties kind of risks. Risk management is a crucial parts of successful engineering project management, but it is often not well predictive in many projects. Risk predictive is valuable and essential for decision support system. But risk factors in projects are complex and couple with each other, and normal risk predictive can not manifest this relationship fully. According to the uncertainness parameters in risk management, predictive control strategy is proposed in this paper. Considering the nonlinear dynamical process, the model of external disturbance is built as a part of control system, and its stability is also analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical simulation.