Theory of Unload-load Response Ratio and its Application in Debris Landslide Forecast

摘要

Debris landslide is a widely distributed and its hazard is huge and hard to forecast with traditional method. Instability drivers of the debris landslide and mechanism were systematically analyzed in this paper. And on that basis, the theory of unload-load response ratio was proposed to forecast the landslide's stability. In the view of system dynamics, the unload-load parameter and unload-load response parameter were singled out and the feasibility was able to build up analyzed, and then, the model of unload-load response ratio was built. As an example, the model was used to analyze and calculate the Xintan typical debris landslide. The results were showed. The steady state reflected by the timing curve of the unload-load response ratio was consistent with the landslide's actual status, when Y'→0, the overall unstability of landslide would appear. That showed it was available to use the unload-load response ratio to forecast landslide's deformation stage and as a criterion of landslide instability.