Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Highway Construction Management

摘要

Construction management is the totality of activities that address the managerial and technological aspects of highway construction, conducted during the planning, design, construction, and post-construction phases of the project, for the purpose of achieving scope, quality level, cost, schedule and other project performance objectives. The ability to better understand potential risks and how to manage those yields benefits far in excess of the costs of adopting risk management practices. In this paper, the most common set of processes including risk identification, assessment, analysis, mitigation, allocation, monitoring and updating are discussed, and the relationship between the computational method (the model) and its required inputs and available outputs is illustrated. The methodology and systematic process of probabilistic risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation methods is conducted, and a comprehensive case study of probabilistic risk analysis for a highway construction management is given out, in which the sensitivity analysis and other output from the simulation model are illustrated to support the risk management plan. It is obviously that the probabilistic risk analysis of Monte Carlo simulation could provide very important information for a decision maker.