Computer Simulation Forecast of the Markov Chain for Payback Period of Construction Projects Investment

摘要

The investment payback period of construction projects is an important index that evaluate and measure economic effect of project investment. It is difficult that the investment payback period of construction projects is calculated generally using analytic method.We established the mathematical model of the payback period, the annual net cash flows are Markov chains. According to the similar projects, collected net yearly cash flow and each quarter net cash flow, A one-step transition probability matrix was described by using the computer simulation of Markov chains, forecasted the dynamic and static payback period of construction projects investment, so as to provide the scientific basis data for decision makers.