Determining the Phases and Duration of Business Cycle in China Economy

摘要

This paper employs an analytic framework, which combines TAR model and Bayesian estimation to analyze business cycle of China. The results show that if economic growth is relatively high and going to become persistent, then an economic slump will come subsequently. As for the duration of business cycle, we conclude that the phase of low growth does not last long, however, when the economy is growing at a reasonable high speed, this phase is sustainable.