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Using Generalized Estimating Equation Model to Analyze Crash Frequency on Freeways in China

机译:使用广义估计方程模型分析中国高速公路撞击频率

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Over-dispersion and temporal correlation are two major problems in longitudinal data when analyzing crash frequency on freeways. Neglecting such problems may result in underestimation of standard errors and misleading inference for regression parameters. Therefore, appropriate methods need to be proposed to get the unbiased predictions. The primary objective of this study is to illustrate the application of Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) to the analysis of crash frequency data with over-dispersion and temporal correlation. The study will also investigate the relationships between crash frequency and contributing factors. To achieve these research objectives, crash data was collected from 2006 to 2008 on Guangshen freeway in China. A GEE Negative Binomial model was proposed and the effectiveness of the model was also examined. It was found that three variables, including the logarithm of annual traffic volume, days of severe weather, and days of bad visibility significantly affect the crash frequency on freeways.
机译:在分析高速公路上分析碰撞频率时,过分分散和时间相关是纵向数据中的两个主要问题。忽略这些问题可能导致低估了标准错误和回归参数的误导性推断。因此,需要提出适当的方法来获得无偏见的预测。本研究的主要目的是说明广义估计方程(GEE)在具有过度分散和时间相关性的碰撞频率数据的分析中的应用。该研究还将调查碰撞频率与贡献因素之间的关系。为实现这些研究目标,从2006年到2008年在中国的广场高速公路中收集了崩溃数据。提出了一种Gee负二进制型,并检查了模型的有效性。结果发现,三个变量,包括年交通量,恶劣天气天的数量,恶劣的能力日显着影响了高速公路的碰撞频率。

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