Systematic FEP and scenario analysis to provide a framework for assessing long-term performance of the Krechba CO_2 storage system at In Salah

摘要

This paper presents a structured qualitative approach to analysing the varied kinds of information from a CO_2 storage site, so as to produce scenarios that are amenable to numerical analysis. The approach is illustrated by application to an industrial scale CCS project at Krechba, In Salah, in Algeria. A structured approach is needed to support assessments of the likely performance of CCS systems over operational, monitoring and longer term time-frames. Very varied information concerning such systems' engineered and environmental components must be obtained and evaluated to attain sufficient confidence that performance will be acceptable. Computer simulations and risk assessment models are needed to help understand the behaviour of CO_2 and place plausible bounds on the temporal evolution of all aspects of the system. The outcomes will be uncertain, even if underpinning data sets are of good quality The approach included identification of the important the Features, Events and Processes (FEPs) that together describe the Krechba system and its likely evolution. An 'expected evolution' scenario was then identified by systematically evaluating existing knowledge. Scenarios describing potential situations that could involve alternative evolution mechanisms were also identified; these included consideration of mechanisms that could in principal lead to containment failure. These scenarios need to be analysed to show that they are either unlikely to occur and/or will be of limited impact and so do not represent threats to adequate performance. After audit against Quintessa's freely available generic online CO_2 FEP database to ensure and demonstrate comprehensiveness, the site-specific scenarios identified and the associated list of remaining uncertainties, were used to prioritise future (e.g. systems modelling) work. The outcomes of this and other data analysis and modelling programmes will be used to update the FEP and scenario descriptions.