Systematic Dynamics Method for Scenario Simulation Analysis of Urban Traffic CO_2 Emissions in Baoding

摘要

With the strategy of low-carbon pilot city proceeding in China, the objective of this study is to identify simulated-variation tendency of urban traffic carbon emission under various policy focus and provide emission-cutting recommendations relatively in Baoding. System dynamics is based on the cause-and-effect analysis and feedback loops structures, including two sub-models: vehicles quantity and CO_2 emissions using Vensim PLE software from 2006 to 2013. With an innovative exploration, this study employs system dynamics to carry out scenario numerical-simulation analysis, more specifically: establishing system dynamics model, analyzing scenario numerical-simulation results under different changed parameters and suggesting improvement proposal, making comparison and analysis. Result provides simulated data of energy consumption and carbon emissions and indicates the differences under different urban development strategies. Typically, large utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas vehicle (LNG) bus in urban transportation could reduce CO_2 emissions considerably. Controlling vehicle quantity to improve the sustainability of transportation system are significant.