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Understanding and Stabilizing the Housing Price in Shanghai-A System Dynamics Approach

机译:理解和稳定上海的房价 - 一种系统动力学方法

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Under the housing welfare policy scheme in China, allocation of housing is done by managers of the scheme; the houses belonged to the state and couldn’t be traded privately. Although houses are constructed every year, demand for housing has not kept pace with supply due to ever growing demand of the scarce facility. In 1998, the housing welfare allocation policy was abolished in order to reduce the cost of burden to government. This led to gradual relieve on those in need of housing to live in. However the change in policy led to successive price increase for housing exponentially over the last decade. Even though housing facilities became available, they are not accessible to many Chinese families due to the continuous increase in the prices. It is tough to afford the available houses to live in as prices keep increasing over time. The imbalances between the need for affordable housing by families and available inaccessible expensive housing have multiplying effect on the economy. It would lead to slow development of the housing market and industry as well as reduce quality of life for the masses, hence the for critical study of the underlying cause(s) of the problematic behavior. This paper, system dynamics method is applied to study the price increases problem. We found out that the feedback loop relating to the housing price and speculation of demand for housing is reinforcing; leading to further price increases over time. We have built system dynamic model to explain the relationship existing between inventory, housing price, consumption and speculative demand. We have also applied various tests to make this model robust, more valid and rational similar to real life situation. The speculative demand proved to be the main source of the price hike and therefore we formulated two policies recommendable to the effect of the feedback relationship between housing price increases and speculative demand thereby stabilizing the housing price increases.
机译:在中国的住房福利政策计划下,房屋的分配由该计划的管理人员完成;房屋属于国家,无法私下交易。虽然房屋是每年建造的,但由于稀缺工厂的需求不断增长,对房屋的需求并未与供应保持步伐。 1998年,废除了住房福利分配政策,以降低政府负担的成本。这导致逐渐缓解有需要住房的人。然而,政策的变化导致了过去十年的住房价格的连续价格。尽管房屋设施可用,但由于价格不断增加,许多中国家庭无法访问它们。当价格随着时间的推移而越来越越来越努力,那就难以获得居住的房屋。家庭经济适用住房的需求与可接近昂贵的住房之间的不平衡具有繁多对经济影响。它会导致房地产市场和行业的发展缓慢,以及降低群众的生活质量,因此对有问题行为的潜在原因的关键研究。本文采用了系统动力学方法研究价格提高了问题。我们发现,与住房价格和外壳需求的猜测有关的反馈环是加强;导致进一步的价格随着时间的推移而增加。我们已经建立了系统动态模型来解释库存,住房价格,消费和投机需求之间存在的关系。我们还应用了各种测试,使这种模型具有稳健,更有效,更合理类似于现实生活情况。投机性要求被证明是价格上涨的主要来源,因此我们制定了两项建立了两项标准的政策,即住房价格上涨和投机性需求之间的反馈关系,从而稳定住房价格上涨。

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