Estimation of economic losses according to the earthquake scenarios for Istanbul

摘要

After the earthquake which occurred in Kocaeli and Duzce in 1999, studies adhering seismic vulnerability and risk have gained great acceleration as never before. Despite earthquakes were expected, the consequences were far beyond than expected. Hence, all attention has been drawn to Istan- bul which has similar urban development process and similar type of building quality but with a larger population. The historical earthquake records support this kind of concern, as Istanbul suffered large damages during its long history. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to find out economic consequences of a probable earthquake in Istanbul. Earthquake scenarios of Istanbul have been used in order to estimate total damage cost from damages to housing units and interruption of business activities. This research examines on one hand how economic losses are distributed on spatial pattern of Istanbul an on the other hand how elements (housing and business units) at risk have changed since the year 2000.