6.5 Modelling the Impact of Climate Changes on PM Levels in Poland

摘要

For assessing the impacts of climate changes on PM levels we adopted, for the first time in Poland, the modelling system built with the CAMx model coupled with the RegCM3 regional climate model. The simulations were performed with very high resolution of 10 km for the modelling area of Central-Eastern Europe, centered over Poland. The modelling system was evaluated for the entire 2000 year of reference for which detailed emissions database was created. The predictions of PM_(10) concentrations by the RegCM3/CAMx driven by the ECHAM5 global circulation model were of similar quality to those of the RegCM3/CAMx driven with the ERA40 global atmospheric reanalysis dataset. We obtained the NMSE in the predictions of annual PM_(10) ≤ 0.35 and the IA > 0.5. Next the system was forced by the output of the ECHAM5 for the simulations covering present day and near future decadal time-slices. The anthropogenic emissions were kept unchanged. The results obtained suggest that the changes in PM_(10) concentrations induced by climate changes in near future will be small to moderate and will not exceed -4.5 to 1.5 μg/m~3 for the Central-Eastern Europe.