4.14 Multi-model Versus EPS-Based Ensemble of Atmospheric Dispersion Predictions: A Quantitative Assessment

摘要

Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) modeling. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using simulations performed for ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also compared against measurement data.