Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Drought Vulnerability Based on theAnalytic Hierarchy Process -----An Empirical Study from Xiaogan City in Hubei Province

摘要

Designing scientifically drought vulnerability evaluation index system has great meaning to the quantitative analysis of drought vulnerability, vulnerability zoning of drought and drought risk management. This article takes seven counties of Xiaogan city in Hubei Province as the case study area, screens out 17 factors which closely related to drought vulnerability as evaluation index mainly from a socio-economic perspective, applies AHP to determine the weights of various relevant factors in the evaluation index, and then uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to achieve a drought vulnerability assessment. The results show that the overall level of drought vulnerability degree in Xiaogan City is high, in which Dawu County and Xiaochang County have the highest level of vulnerability. Accordingly, the paper brings forward the policy recommendations, including: diversifying peasants’ income channels, increasing non-agricultural income and reducing the dependence on agriculture; improving government’s risk management capacity and establishing drought emergency management programs; developing rural micro-credit capital markets and a variety of intermediary organizations. This article aims to make references to the study and practice of drought vulnerability evaluation.